An Oppressive Stalemate

The PTI so far fails to get positive results from its backchannel huddles with the establishment

The backchannel talks between the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and the country’s powerful military establishment “have failed to deliver” — at least for now — as there remains a huge gap between the priorities and objectives of the two sides, sources within the former ruling party said.

Former premier Imran Khan’s demand for early elections is just one obvious issue, but connected to this are many other important sticking points on which the two sides do not see eye-to-eye, they said.

There have been nine or 10 sittings between the PTI leadership and the military high-ups, including the one at the President House in which Imran Khan himself participated. But all these behind-the-scenes huddles have failed to break the deadlock, the sources said.

A senior PTI official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said that the establishment wants to give a level-playing field to all the political players, including those who have been convicted of corruption such as former premier Nawaz Sharif. There is pressure on Imran Khan to abandon the anti-corruption narrative and focus on the future. This is being done, according to the source, to ensure that the next general elections remain noncontroversial, which is seen as a prerequisite for political stability in the country.

But for Imran Khan, backtracking on the anti-corruption campaign would be like undermining his entire politics as accountability remains the bedrock of his party, he added.

An indication of the changing mood in the corridors of power towards the accountability process can be seen from the fact that a number of high-profile corruption cases have already been quashed. The top beneficiaries include Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, his son, former president Asif Ali Zardar, and a number of their close political associates and aides.

Following the controversial amendments in the accountability laws, which were made soon after the Shehbaz Sharif government came to power, the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) has been forced to withdraw two hundred-plus cases. Sources in the NAB say that many other corruption cases, especially those involving politicians, would be withdrawn in the coming days and weeks.

However, the government appears determined to initiate corruption cases against the PTI chief Imran Khan and other leaders. If the stalemate with the establishment continues, there could be some arrests, and even convictions, analysts say.

One sign of the changing times is Imran Khan’s disqualification in the controversial Toshakhana case by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). The ECP has disqualified Imran Khan under Article 63(1) (p) for making false statements and incorrect declarations. According to the ruling, Imran Khan will remain disqualified till the present National Assembly completes its term.

The PTI sources claimed that the establishment appears to have a soft corner towards the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), and its Chairman, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, is being tipped as the prime minister in the mid- to long-term. But for now, the plans seem to be that the PPP would continue to enjoy its dominance in Sindh province.

Imran Khan in a number of speeches and interactions with the media has already said that when he was in power, his party was not able to push the accountability agenda because there were wheels within wheels and the system appeared to protect those politicians who were involved in corruption.

Apart from the anti-corruption narrative, certain foreign policy issues have also proved contentious. However, the PTI sources refused to give details about them, saying that the two sides also did not see eye-to-eye on the policy towards India. There are also objections towards certain individuals within the PTI, which further complicated these backchannel talks, they said.

Independent analysts say that Imran Khan’s aggressive tone against the military top brass and all the metaphors he used against them has also created a lot of bad breath between the two sides which once were happy to be seen on the same page.

Imran Khan’s attempts to discredit the military leadership has not gone down well within the institution and there is a lot of resentment against what are being described as his irresponsible remarks. Analysts believe that until Imran Khan mends fences with the establishment, he would remain in the political wilderness despite all his popularity.

Imran Khan faces the dilemma of whether to take the establishment head-on or keep the backchannel huddles going in an attempt to break the political impasse. There is a growing pressure within the party to go all out for street protests and agitation, especially following the ECP verdict. But saner voices within the PTI call for restraint and urge continued engagement with the establishment.

Going forward, Imran Khan and his followers are likely to face tough times. There are chances that the government might up the ante against its main rival by launching a crackdown on the party and its leadership.  However, a growing political friction will be tough not just for Imran Khan and his party but also for the country which faces the twin crisis of political and economic instability.

Therefore, moderate voices among all the stakeholders are calling for an early resolution of the political stalemate so that the country could focus on the real challenges in which managing the grim economic challenge remains the top priority.