Long March Blues

While Imran Khan is riding on popular sentiment, much will depend on how the government and the establishment handle the emerging scene

Now it is Imran Khan versus the rest.

As the former prime minister slowly moves towards Islamabad along with tens of thousands of supporters, all the hopes of a last-minute political settlement have “officially” faded away – at least for now.

This time around, Imran Khan is taking on the combined strength of the ruling Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), and in a way on the country’s powerful establishment. Apparently, however, chances of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chairman’s success are slim, given the fact that all the traditional political forces and key stakeholders have joined hands to deny him an early general election.

Just a day before Imran Khan was to start his much-trumpeted ‘long-march,’ the military leadership made its position clear in the country’s continuing political crisis. In an unprecedented press conference, the Chief of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Lt Gen Nadeen Ahmed Anjum, himself appeared before a select group of journalists along with DG Inter-Services Public Relation (ISPR), Lt Gen Babar Iftikhar, to give an institutional response to what the duo called the “one-sided lies” being leveled against the Pakistan Army and its leadership.

The press conference must have raised the morale of the beleaguered Shehbaz Sharif government. And it came as a warning for the PTI, which till recently was engaged in backchannel talks with the military leadership to find a solution to the country’s grinding political deadlock. However, some 10 days back, the PTI officials disclosed that “talks have failed to deliver” – a fact reported in the Bol News’ previous issue — https://www.oldsite.bolnews.com/newspaper/national-nerve/2022/10/an-oppressive-stalemate/ — and later acknowledged by Imran Khan himself.

The joint press conference by the DGs of the ISI and the ISPR provided the military leadership’s version, according to which those backchannel talks with the PTI were held to reduce ‘toxicity’ in Pakistani politics.

“I am here because my institution and agency are being maligned through lies,” said General Anjum. “I could not have remained silent…, especially when there is a threat of discord (in the country) because of one-sided lies.”

Pakistan Army’s top leadership has been coming under severe criticism from the PTI supporters since the Imran Khan government was ousted from power as a result of the no-confidence motion. Imran Khan and his supporters directly and indirectly held the military leadership’s “neutral” or “apolitical” stance responsible for the ascent to power of the Sharif and Zardari families and their close aides, whom they accuse of massive corruption, misrule and mismanagement.

DG ISPR, Lt Gen Babar, said that lies were propagated to present the no-confidence vote as a regime-change operation, even though it was a political and constitutional matter. Even the institution of the army was maligned to pressure it to undertake political intervention, he said. When the army remained unmoved, phrases like “neutrality and being apolitical” were used in a negative context to insult the military, he added.

The press conference underlined the fact that the Pakistan Army stands fully behind the Shehbaz Sharif government and is not prepared to yield to Imran Khan’s demand of holding early general elections.

With the battle-lines now clearly drawn, polarization is all set to intensify in Pakistani politics which for many observers has already become too toxic and over-heated. As all sides dig their heels for an apparent final showdown, efforts to break the political impasse and find a middle ground seem to be off the table for now.

The popular public sentiment is indeed with Imran Khan and his PTI, but all the entrenched political players and the establishment appear in no mood to give in to his demands. This means that the politics of confrontation will continue in the foreseeable future, which is bad news for the country as it can ill-afford street protests at a time when the economy is in a dire state.

Imran Khan, who was once described by his rivals as the protégé of the establishment, is playing the biggest gamble of his political career as he slowly advances towards Islamabad. If he fails to draw large crowds by the time he reaches Islamabad, it would come as a blow to his tenacious anti-Shehbaz Sharif government campaign.

There is also a risk of violence and matters slipping out of the hands of the leadership in case the government decides to resort to high-handed action against the protesters. Even if the march fizzles out, the friction in Pakistani politics would continue.

There is also a question that if all goes as per Imran Khan’s plan and he manages to draw massive crowds into Islamabad, will it cause the Shehbaz Sharif government to implode? And what will happen if the government is really thrown on the ropes? There is no previous example of a Pakistani government collapsing as a result of street protests. Will this mean that a new precedent is being set in the country?

All the possible scenarios of the long march – from its success to its failure – carry huge potential risks. Then what is the way out? This must be the top question in the hearts and minds of the stalwarts of both the civilian and military leadership.

Will there be another backchannel effort to defuse this explosive situation and find a middle ground before Imran Khan and his followers reach Islamabad? There is always a possibility. And even if there is none, the powers that be must create one to resolve the matter through talks.

If the political and military leadership fail to break this political impasse, the scars of this friction would linger in Pakistani politics for a long time to come, and widen the gulf between the rulers and the ruled.

Already, the popular public sentiment is against this government, which did not do itself any favour by pushing the controversial amendments into the accountability laws with the sole aim to benefit a couple of political dynasties and their close aides. If the current set-up continues to hold onto power despite its growing unpopularity among ordinary Pakistanis, it would also create a wedge between the people and the institutions, which should not be seen as protectors and defenders of the corrupt and their corruption. Therefore, the time to act and find a political solution to the stalemate is now, before it is too late.