Are we Losing the Focus?

The prevailing political turmoil is paving way for the resurgence of terrorism in the country

Pakistan’s counter-terrorism efforts had a bright history until 2019 when the reversal of the gains of the Operation Zarb-e-Azb started. No doubt Operation Raddul Fasad – started in 2017 achieved key successes in the urban centres of the country, the militants have also regrouped and reshaped their operational tactics, and since 2019 an uptick in the anti-state violence is visible.

Two major developments were noticed, apparently not related to each other but the coincidence of timing has much to say. The process of the regrouping of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the formation of Balochistan Raji Ajoi Sangar (BRAS) started almost at the same time. It was the year 2018 which saw key developments in the militancy landscape of Pakistan which made significant impact in the following years.

The Baloch Liberation Army’s key operational group under the command of Aslam Baloch had defected from its mainstream organisation loyal to the Murree tribe. The BLA Aslam Baloch group later joined hands with Dr. Allah Nazar’s Baloch Liberation Front (BLF) to form BRAS. In 2018, major factions of the Baloch Republican Guard (BRG) and the Baloch Republican Army (BRA) also joined BRAS. Since the formation of BRAS, we have seen a significant improvement in the capacity and capability of Baloch militants. A consistent rise is witnessed in the high-profile attacks attributed to Baloch militants since then.

During the same period, efforts were started to reunite splinter groups from the TTP – the largest and most potent group fighting against the Pakistani state. In late 2017, it was the Khan Saeed Sajna group which had merged back into TTP but he was killed in a drone strike in February 2018.

In June 2018 the then-TTP head Mullah Fazlullah died and Abu Asim Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud became the ameer/head of TTP. Since his rise to the top slot, we have witnessed the process of reunification of the TTP taking up pace. However, since Hizb-ul Ahrar had become a bigger and more potent group than TTP, it took two years to convince Umar Khalid Khorasani who was the real mind behind Hizb-ul Ahrar and Jamat-ul Ahrar to join its ranks. The two names were used just for deception otherwise it was always the same group. In August 2020, not only Hizb-ul Ahrar merged back into the TTP but some other smaller groups and some splinter groups of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi too joined the TTP. There is no doubt that the reign of Mullah Fazlullah made the TTP weak internally. The group was formed by militants from the Mehsud tribe of South Waziristan under the leadership of Baitullah Mehsud in 2007. Hakeemullah Mehsud had replaced Baitullah after the death of the former in a US drone strike in 2009. Hakeemullah Mehsud was also killed in a US drone strike in November 2013 and then for the first time a non-Mehsud non-FATA leader was appointed as head of the TTP, who failed to keep the group united. After he died in 2018, the leadership went back to Mehsuds and the group also got unified.

Data compiled by the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) show that militant attacks have started to rise in 2020 in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa and its tribal districts (erstwhile FATA). The number of attacks attributed to the TTP further escalated after the takeover of Afghanistan by the Islamic Emirate (aka the Afghan Taliban) in August 2021. In November 2021, the TTP announced a one-month ceasefire but ended it in December 2021 and intensified the attacks on Pakistan. In April 2022, air raids were conducted against the TTP’s hideouts inside Afghanistan which were blamed on Pakistani forces. Within 15 days of these air raids, the TTP unilaterally announced an indefinite ceasefire which remained intact from May till the end of August 2022. However, the militant attacks in the KP as well as in Balochistan continued at the same pace. That means there are other players who have the ability to perpetrate violence against the state. Hafiz Gul Bahadur’s Shura Mujahideen North Waziristan and DAESH were the main players who kept the momentum.

Meanwhile, another significant development was observed inside Afghanistan where the TTP’s and Gul Bahadur Group’s top commanders are being eliminated one by one in mysterious circumstances. Umar Khalid Khorasani was the most prominent commander who was killed on August 7, 2022. The TTP intelligence chief Uqabi Bajauri, Yasir Parakay, Akhtar Mohmand Jani Khel and others were also killed in different parts of Afghanistan during the last three months. The TTP Chief Mufti Noor Wali has gone underground and is no longer available to other commanders.

The assassinations of the TTP’s commanders have jeopardized the peace process with Pakistan. On several occasions, the TTP has tried to clarify that the peace process is intact and its attacks are of defensive nature. While no enthusiasm has been seen in the government circles too regarding the peace process with the TTP, especially after the transfer of Lt. General Faiz Hameed from Peshawar to Bahawalpur. He was spearheading the peace process. Just like the TTP, the KP government has also expressed on a number of occasions that the peace process is intact but where it is heading no one knows.

Coming back to Balochistan, since the formation of BRAS, we have seen more militants joining the group. Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army (SRA) also joined hands with BRAS last year. The militants are uniting, while our efforts to fight them are gradually losing focus. Perhaps other pressing issues have taken over the top chart of the priority list. There was a time when fighting terrorism was the top agenda of our government and the national institutions. The prevailing political turmoil in the country is paving way for the resurgence of terrorism in the country. Those at the helm of affairs need to get a break from day-to-day affairs and tackle the menace with a strategic approach. I will write about our counter-terrorism approaches in my next write-up for Bol News. Till then stay tuned!

Abdullah Khan is Managing Director at an Islamabad-based think tank Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies