One Foot in the Doorway

The Sharifs seem to be successfully circumnavigating high seas, but given the vagaries of politics, the tide could turn in an instant

It is not just former premier Imran Khan who faces uncertain times as he struggles to force early elections in the country. His chief nemesis, self-exiled PML-N leader, Nawaz Sharif, is also treading thin ice as he manoeuvres to get the Supreme Court of Pakistan’s July 2017 verdict against him overturned and find a safe route home.

“Nawaz Sharif has been demanding that he be given a level-playing field for a long time. His asking includes that he be allowed to contest the general elections. But this cannot be done until the Supreme Court’s verdict against him in the Panama Papers’ case is overturned,” a close aide of Sharif told Bol News requesting anonymity. His demands notwithstanding, so far, the federal government led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has been unable to provide its leader relief — ie. any assurance that he can return to the country without the fear of landing in jail.

Sharif, who has been living in self-imposed exile in London since November 2019, was provided the unprecedented concession by the Imran Khan government of being sent abroad directly from prison under the pretext of medical treatment. Now, although they themselves allowed him to leave the country, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leaders are claiming that Sharif’s medical reports were fudged.

PML-N sources claim that all the stakeholders, including the military establishment, are onboard in the effort to get Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification decision overturned. But they concede that a legal or constitutional provison needs to be found to do so.

The major hurdle for the Sharifs is that the Supreme Court of Pakistan knows it would mean undermining itself if it were to overturn the larger bench’s decision. The court had unanimously declared Sharif unfit for public office, on the grounds that he had been “dishonest” to Parliament and the courts by not revealing his employment in the Dubai-based Capital FZE Company in his 2013 nomination papers.

In its landmark decision on the Panama Papers case on July 28, 2017, the Supreme Court had also ordered the filing of corruption references against Sharif, several of his family members and close aides. Doing this, the Supreme Court had declared that the Sharif family operated like the Sicilian mafia.

In recent weeks and months, however, a lot of relief has been given by the courts to the Sharif family. This  includes the acquittal of his daughter Maryam and son-in-law Muhammad Safdar in the Avenfield properties case.

Meanwhile, the Shehbaz Sharif government has already made controversial amendments to the accountability law which appear specifically aimed at benefitting the Sharif clan, their relatives and close aides involved in mega corruption cases. Since then, Ishaq Dar, whose elder son is married to one of Sharif’s daughters, has found relief in the assets beyond means case against him and  been appointed Finance Minister.

His change of fortunes from absconder to landing the coveted position of Finance Minister exposes all the flaws and weaknesses of Pakistan’s prosecution, investigation and legal system which can be exploited by people with financial means and political clout.  Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his two sons are cases in point: they have also got relief in billions of rupees worth money- laundering cases.

Irfan Qadir, a former Attorney General of Pakistan and a leading jurist, who represented the Sharif family in various corruption cases, said that following the acquittal of Maryam and Safdar in the Avenfield case by the Islamabad High Court, a precedent has been set. According to him, the Supreme Court will have to overturn its decision with regard to Nawaz Sharif on similar grounds that were considered by the Islamabad High Court.

“I have repeatedly said that the life-long ban on Nawaz Sharif is wrong,” he said. “Nawaz Sharif has not been convicted in a corruption case, he has been convicted  for not disclosing his job with the Dubai-based firm. No one has explained the case properly to the Supreme Court.”  He added that implicating Nawaz Sharif, Maryam Nawaz and others in the Avenfield case was also wrong. “The property was purchased by Nawaz Sharif’s father Mian Sharif … if you can hold a trial of someone in the grave, go ahead.”

Qadir did, however, say that the inconsistent statements of the Sharif family about the Avenfield properties made their case controversial.

But Sharif’s close aide admits that there still remain many a slip between the cup and the lip.

“Apparently, the tailwind appears to be favouring Nawaz… a lot of decisions have gone in his favour, but how things transpire in the post-General Qamar Bajwa scenario is hard to predict now. One can expect many changes and readjustments once the new COAS (Chief of the Army Staff) takes over,” Sharif’s close aide maintained. And he admitted that under General Qamar Javed Bajwa the elements seemed to favour Nawaz Sharif and his family. “One can see that Ishaq Dar returned smoothly and there was hardly any public outcry. Shehbaz Sharif is now the PM and Maryam has been acquitted. The PTI is on the back-foot as despite all its tall claims, its much touted red-lines have  been breached, one after another. The last one was the failed assassination attempt on Imran Khan, but that too engendered hardly any reaction,” claimed Qadir.

PML-N stalwarts believe that the public anger against the ouster of Imran Khan’s government has already crossed the boiling point, but it has failed to undo the change. For them the worst of the “public rage” is now over. PML-N sources disclose that the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government had decided to dissolve the assemblies on May 23, and call fresh elections. But Imran Khan miscalculated and announced the long-march on May 22, forcing the government to change its decision. “ And the rest is history,” said the Sharif aide.

He, however, said that there remains the need to find a middle ground as the current political logjam is damaging the country. “There is a need to resolve this crisis in such a way that all the stakeholders find some face-saving. And to this end, the holding of the next elections a few months ahead of schedule cannot be ruled out.”

Critics, however, say that Sharif wants a lopsided, not a level  playing field favouring himself before elections are called. The country’s key institutions – from Parliament to the Election Commission and from the judiciary to the military – have already become controversial because of the way changes in the accountability law have been allowed and some of the most corrupt politicians brought back at the helm of affairs. Now there are fears that the credibility of the superior judiciary and the entire legal system will be questioned if Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification decision gets overturned.

Although some senior PML-N leaders claim that Sharif will be back in Pakistan in the next few weeks, he is not announcing a decision in this regard as yet, as Pakistani politics remain uncertain.

The tide seeming to so far be favouring Sharif and his clan, can, given the vagaries of Pakistan’s politics, just as easily altogether change direction, or at least become “neutral,”  which would mean that Nawaz Sharif’s dream of getting the decision to disqualify him from politics scrapped, would remain just that — a dream. The only certainty for all the key players in Pakistani politics remains the lingering uncertainty.