Amid Ifs and Buts

While Imran Khan is pressing for dissolution of the Punjab Assembly, a lot will depend on which way the PML-Q prefers to drift

LAHORE: The post-April political situation has pushed a pro-establishment political party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q), to stand up and support a seemingly anti-establishment party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), in Pakistan’s largest province, Punjab.

This has baffled political pundits, triggering speculations as to which way Punjab will drift over the coming weeks and months.

Since its birth during a military regime in 2002, the PML-Q is seen by analysts to have always danced to the tunes of the powerful military establishment. Perhaps, that was the reason why both the PTI and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), of which PML-Q is a breakaway faction, desisted from giving its leaders, the Chaudhrys of Gujrat, any prominent political role.

This changed on 28 March 2022, when PTI’s Punjab Chief Minister, Usman Buzdar, resigned from the office, and the main contenders for the seat – the PTI and PML-N – got stuck in a fluid numbers game. Both parties offered to nominate Ch Pervaiz Elahi for the seat, and Mr Elahi chose PTI, reportedly on the recommendation of the establishment.

Eight months down the line, political situation in Punjab is once again in a flux, especially after the PTI chief, Imran Khan, announced at a rally in Rawalpindi that he planned to dissolve the assemblies in both Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), the provinces where it has its governments. Many saw it as a tactic to pressure the federal government to announce early elections.

But once again, all eyes are on Pervaiz Elahi. Will he obey Khan and dissolve the Punjab assembly, choose some other option, or try to convince Imran Khan to delay his move?

Talking to Bol News, people close to PML-Q leadership said that Mr Elahi had been the most trustworthy lieutenant of the establishment, and would continue to stand with the PTI because it suited the power circles.

“Imran Khan is a popular leader, and we [PML-Q] want smooth sailing in next elections through seat adjustment with PTI; so, there is no plan to ditch the PTI at the moment,” one PML-Q insider said.

Also, PML-Q sources say the party leadership has had bitter experiences with the Sharifs of PML-N in the past and will not become part of a move that brings PML-N to the fore in Punjab.

One PML-Q member of Punjab assembly, Khadija Umar, told Bol News that her party was standing firm with the PTI. All decisions, including the dissolution of the parliament, would be taken jointly by all stakeholders, she said.

“Ch Pervaiz Elahi is a dependable person, and PTI should rest assured that he won’t disappoint it at any stage. We chose to go with the PTI instead of the PDM (Pakistan Democratic Alliance) when things were pretty murky in Punjab. And now our leader (Mr Elahi) has openly stated that he will fulfill his commitments with Imran Khan,” she said.

Ms Khadija further said that her party would always go for options that are in the country’s interest. PML-Q has always had good relations with the military establishment because institutions like the army are crucial to the country’s sovereignty and stability, she said.

Similar thoughts were expressed by seasoned analyst, Salman Abid. Talking to Bol News, he said that the prevailing political situation had established Pervaiz Elahi as a dependable source of support for the PTI. He said both the PML-Q and PTI had no choice but to support each other in Punjab.

He explained that the alliance with PML-Q suited the PTI because, without Elahi’s support, it wouldn’t have formed a government in Punjab in the first place. Conversely, PML-Q would now be eyeing big political gains through seat adjustments with the PTI in next elections. It would “love to cash in on Imran Khan’s popularity” for political gains in next elections, he said.

He further said that PTI wouldn’t dissolve the two assemblies unless it gets a clear assurance from the establishment for early elections. The party had been discussing this with the establishment before, and will continue to explore the chances in the aftermath of the recent change of the army command.

Since the PML-Q is most likely to go with the establishment on the issue, PTI would rather wait before going for dissolutions, he said.

Accordingly to the MPA, PML-Q always have good relations with state institutions including Army because they’re backbone to country’s sovereignty and stability. Responding to a query, Ms Khadija said seat adjustment with PTI during the next elections would be decided by the party leadership at the suitable time.