The Evolving Terror Scene

As the TTP end their ceasefire a third time, what are they thinking, and what will be Pakistan’s strategy

PESHAWAR: The decision by Pakistani Taliban to end a ceasefire and resume attacks on Pakistani territory has raised concerns among people, especially in southern Khyber Pukhtunkhwa (KP) province and Balochistan where depressing memories of a decade of terrorism still linger.

The decision was announced last week by Mohammad Khurasani, the spokesman of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). He urged the TTP fighters to resume attacks on Pakistani security forces wherever and whenever feasible. As a reason for this decision, he cited “an unending series of operations against the mujahideen” by Pakistani forces.

A statement issued by TTP on the occasion said: “The TTP Minister of Defence, Mufti Muzahim, commands all group leaders, tehsil in-charges and governors to conduct attacks across the country. We remained patient in order to save the negotiations process but the (Pakistani) army and intelligence agencies continued operations against us.”

The now-void ceasefire, which was announced on 2 June 2022, was the third and longest lasting truce since the two sides entered talks in October last year. A ceasefire announced back then ended in early November amid TTP claims that Pakistan was not fulfilling promises made during the October talks, including the release of 102 jailed TTP fighters. The Afghan Taliban mediated another ceasefire in May this year, but that, too, collapsed within a month.

The June meetings that led to the latest ceasefire were held in Kabul and were reportedly attended by the top TTP commander, Mufti Noor Wali. The two sides extensively discussed their respective issues and the possibilities of resolving them.

But on-ground situation remained tense, particularly after the TTP fighters showed up in Swat during the August tourism season, shocking the local population as well as the police. It triggered massive protests by people and subsequent military mobilization, forcing them to quit the scene.

But security situation in KP has remained tense, especially in areas closer to the Afghan border where security forces have been coming under frequent attacks. Many believe the situation is likely to intensify. A recent suicide attack on a truck carrying police personnel for security duties on the outskirts of Quetta is one example. In a subsequent statement, the TTP said the attack was to avenge the August killing of a Mohmand Taliban leader, Omar Khalid Khurasani, in a road-side bomb attack in Paktia province of Afghanistan.

The question now is, what options do the TTP and the Pakistani authorities have to deal with the situation?

A Peshawar-based security analyst, Nasir Dawar, argues that the ending of the ceasefire “could be a way for the TTP to convey a message to Pakistan’s new army chief not to forget TTP while planning his time ahead in his new office.”

He said the Pakistani government had been serious in its talks with the TTP, but there had been some misunderstandings, which a KP government spokesman mentioned during a meeting with journalists.

“(The spokesman) said that the main person (an Afghan) facilitating peace talks in Afghanistan faced unforeseen issues, particularly the drone attack in Kabul that killed (Al-Qaeda chief) Ayman al-Zawahiri. It shifted his focus to more pressing matters in his own country,” Mr Dawar said.

This year’s rains and floods have also been a major distraction for decision makers both in Afghanistan and Pakistan, shifting their focus away from the peace process, he said.

According to him, these delays have benefited the TTP. It was able to strengthen itself in the KP and make inroads in areas where it had no access before. Additionally, it has been restructuring itself on the pattern of the Afghan Taliban, with an aim to establish another Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan’s neighbourhood.

Mr Dawar’s thoughts are borne out by latest security data. During November, TTP claimed as many as 29 attacks on Pakistani security forces. Its latest strategy is said to be focused on attacks, ambushes and suicide bombings precisely targeting security troops in areas away from civilian populations.

Citing his sources in the TTP, Peshawar-based journalist, Rasool Dawar, said that if peace talks and ceasefire were not revived, “the TTP is likely to increase attacks in an attempt to establish its worth and seek more attention. This will compel the Pakistani forces to go out with greater might and resort to harsh tactics as any leniency will give the TTP more space.”

However, analyst Nasir Dawar believes the government will opt for reinitiating the peace process.

“KP government spokesperson, Barrister Muhammad Ali Saif, in a recent talks with the media claimed that he is in contact with the TTP leadership. So the government may be mulling another tribal jirga to visit Kabul and revive peace talks.”

Against this backdrop, the high-profile visit of the Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Hina Rabbani Khar, to Kabul comes at a critical time. Pakistan would probably like to convey a message to the Taliban that while the Doha agreement makes it incumbent on them not to allow their soil to be used against neighbouring countries, continued cross-border terror attacks by TTP may mean that the group enjoys Kabul’s support.

Analysts believe that Pakistan may not openly threaten Afghanistan of any serious consequences such as military action inside Afghanistan against the TTP, it could possibly re-emphasize the fact that given its international isolation, Afghanistan only has Pakistan as a dependable supporter and friend, and losing it will multiply its troubles.