Wheels Within Wheels

Currently the PTI, the PML-Q and the PML-N are engaged in a seemingly go-nowhere standoff

Islamabad: Seeing the unflinching position taken by Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf Chairman Imran Khan regarding the dissolution of the Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa assemblies, the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition government has gone into full gear with back-channel efforts to make the PTI agree on some mutually acceptable roadmap for the next general elections.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, the point-man of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)’s supreme leader, Mian Nawaz Sharif, has held two meetings with President Arif Alvi in the past couple of days, ostensibly to brief him on the country’s economic situation. But insiders in the PTI disclosed that Dar had actually gone to Alvi with proposals for the following general elections and the modalities that needed to be finalised before the elections, to make the process transparent and acceptable to all stakeholders.

Sources said the PDM government wants the PTI to reconsider the precondition it has set: of announcing the date for the elections ahead of any negotiations between the two. It says only then will it sit across the negotiation table with the government to finalise the modalities for the next general elections, including the time frame of this exercise. The PTI, however, is obdurate about an election date being announced before it will even consider negotiations.

Before meeting President Alvi, Ishaq Dar had also met Asif Ali Zardari and Maulana Fazlur Rehman separately to get their approval of the options that could be offered to Imran Khan for the next general elections. “What is going on behind the curtain, has the backing of all the stakeholders. If accepted by Imran Khan, a formal announcement will be made in this regard,”  declared one source.

PTI Central Secretary General Asad Umar, meanwhile, said that the PTI would not accept anything less than an announcement of the election date before embarking on any negotiation process. He maintained once the election date is announced, the PTI team will sit with the government to finalise the nitty-gritty of the elections, including necessary electoral reforms and other prerequisites for ensuring transparency in the exercise.

Political observers are also attributing great significance to an otherwise routine meeting between Chairman Senate Sadiq Sanjarani with President Arif Alvi. According to insiders in the PTI, Sanjarani came with a special message from a powerful quarter that also wants to see smooth sailing during the elections, and does not want to see the incumbent political dispensation plunge into a crisis-like situation.

It is true that with the change of command in the Military Establishment things have quite significantly changed, especially in regard to the announcement that henceforth they will remain apolitical. However, political observers contend that being one of the major stakeholders in the system, they cannot stay entirely aloof to the political happenings in the country, and  they definitely do not want to see the country plunge into political chaos and mayhem, which is a virtual inevitability if the PTI persists with its plan of dissolving the Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa assemblies.

The meeting of President Arif Alvi with the Chairman Joints Chiefs of Staff Committee, General Sahir Shamshad, Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on the sidelines of the event arranged at the Awan-i-Sadr to confer Nishan-i-Pakistan Military awards on both, the  CJCSC and the COAS, was also significant.

At the same time, PTI Chairman Imran Khan was holding meetings with his party Parliamentarians from different districts of the Punjab, asking them to start mass mobilisation campaigns in their respective constituencies and prepare the people for the next general elections. Throughout these meetings, Khan repeatedly reiterated that the Parliamentary parties, as well as the chief ministers of the Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa had given him the mandate to dissolve the assemblies, and this would happen during the current month if the government did not announce a firm election date as per the PTI’s demand.

Although Chief Minister Punjab Chaudhry  Parvez Elahi has repeatedly pledged that he will dissolve the Punjab Assembly the moment PTI Chief Imran Khan asks him to do so, rumours are rife in political circles that Elahi might ditch the PTI at the eleventh hour, as he is actually answerable to someone who is not in favor of the dissolution of the assemblies.

PTI Central leader Fawad Chaudhry downplayed the impression of differences between Chaudhry Parvez Elahi and the PTI on the issue of the dissolution of the Punjab Assembly. According to him, Elahi did want some more time for his government to complete certain development projects they had undertaken, but after discussions he came round to the PTI’s point of view.

A senior Parliamentarian in the ruling coalition disclosed to Bol News on condition of anonymity that everybody knows on whose direction the Chaudhries of Gujrat act, and without getting a green signal from them, the Punjab Assembly would not be dissolved. Nonetheless, PTI Chairman Imran Khan remains confident that Chief Minister Punjab Chaudhry  Parvez Elahi will act on his advice, and when he asks, the Punjab Assembly will be dissolved forthwith.

Some political observers concurred with Khan. Commenting on the situation, they said that Chief Minister Punjab Parvez Elahi would not ditch the PTI. All what he wants, they maintain, is a better political bargain and a fair share of seats in the next national polls.

Meanwhile, presumably preparing for any eventuality, the ruling coalition has directed the release of Rs. 14 billion to the Election Commission of Pakistan for it to make arrangements for the next general elections, and the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) has also started preparing lists of potential candidates for the upcoming elections.

Political analysts said that with the crippling of the National Accountability Bureau and the closing down of corruption cases and inquiries against the main leaders of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), half of the ruling coalition’s agenda is complete. Now efforts are underfoot to clear all hurdles in the way of PML-N supreme leader Nawaz Sharif’s return to Pakistan, and to get his disqualification set aside through the court, to make him eligible to participate in national politics. Once this target is achieved, they say, the ruling coalition will announce the date for the next general elections.

Sources in the ruling coalition disclosed that alongside this, the legal brains of the government are also engaged in looking into legal options available to block the dissolution of the Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa assemblies.

Commenting on the possibilities of legal options, constitutional experts said that the government could block the dissolution of the assemblies in more than one way. According to them, it can table a no-confidence motion against the Chief Minister in both assemblies to block any immediate dissolution, but the matter cannot legally linger beyond a couple of weeks. And, they pointed out, in Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa the possibility of managing no-confidence vote would be impossible since the PTI has more than a two-third majority in the house of 145.

They add that in the Punjab too, it is unlikely a government-propelled motion to block dissolution would succeed, as the Opposition parties’ alliance might well manage the PML-Q — which seems right now to be standing like a rock with the PTI. In the experts’ view, making fissures in PTI ranks would not help either, as in the light of the Supreme Court’s interpretation of Article 63-A, votes of defected MPs can’t be counted, and they would in any case lose their seats in case of defection. Thus, according to them, the exercise would fail to achieve the desired results and would instead have negative repercussion on the ruling alliance.

Another option the ruling coalition has is clamping emergency. But again, the conditions stipulated in the Constitution for invoking a proclamation of emergency are quite tough, and require either the passage of a resolution from the provincial assembly requesting the Federal Government to impose emergency in the province, or if the Federal Government clamps emergency in a province on its own, then the decision would require ratification from both houses of Parliament within 10 days of the clamping of emergency. In this case emergency could be imposed for two months, extendable up to a maximum of six months, with ratification of it every two months from a Joint Sitting of Parliament.

In this exercise the President’s role is pivotal. Since the current President belongs to the PTI, he could create problems for the ruling coalition, said political analysts, adding that the move to thwart the dissolution of the provincial assemblies by the federal government in the given situation would not be an easy task.

“The only solution to the prevailing political instability is dialogue. The government has to engage the PTI and give their demand of holding early elections serious consideration,” said ProfEnsor Naeemullah Khan, adding that otherwise things would slip out the hands of political players.

Right now the PTI has 180 MPAs in the Punjab Assembly, and their ally, the PML-Q has 10 MPs, making their total strength 190 in a house of 371. The opposition parties alliance led by the Pakistan Muslim League(Nawaz) have a strength of 180. In the Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa Assembly, in a house of 145, the PTI enjoys a strength of 96, while the opposition alliance has a tally of 48.

Constitutional experts contend that if the PDM government clamps emergency in the Punjab or Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa under Articles 232 to 237 dealing with the subject, the matter will ultimately land in the apex court, which will, in most probability, given the strict conditions stipulated in such situations, scrap any such move.

The PTI also has the option of resigning en masse from the assemblies. And in that event, it is widely believed, the holding of by-elections on such a large number of provincial assemblies seats would finally push the country towards general elections.