Islamabad’s Regional Challenges

Continued political instability is preventing Pakistan from leveraging its position in the region and beyond

In today’s inter-linked world, domestic politics cannot be dissociated from foreign relations, particularly the interaction with neighbours in political, security and economic spheres. An interplay of all these factors also deeply affects a country’s economic standing and overall stability.

Analysts and Pakistan watchers stand in agreement that while the country’s security and foreign policy challenges have compounded in recent years, their complexity will be further exacerbated in 2023. An objective introspection into the foreign policy priorities in recent years bears significance for the future adjustments and course-correction as required by the evolving ground realities. It can also effectively guide us to predict the likely course of these relations in 2023 and beyond. In this regard, the assessment and projection of our crucial relations with the countries in the neighbourhood and the region is of particular relevance.

Looking at the developments over the past few years, especially in 2022, Pakistan’s key neighbouring and regional relationships are likely to take following course in the coming year:

Afghanistan

For Pakistan, the most immediate challenge remains relations with Afghanistan. After the withdrawal of US-led NATO forces and the Taliban take-over of Kabul, there were expectations that the new rulers would bring durable stability in their war-ravaged country by introducing an inclusive government, showing respect for the basic human rights and cooperation in the counter-terrorism efforts. Pakistan hoped for close engagement with the Afghan interim government to improve the border management, counter the TTP’s terrorism challenge and promote cross-border and transit trade. But none of these expectations were fulfilled. While it can be argued that the Afghan government has acted irresponsibly in many ways to antagonize the Afghan people as well as the international community, Pakistan has also not been able to keep the Afghan side engaged in a manner to fulfill our vital national interests on the western frontiers.

The Afghan Taliban have a firm grip over the Afghan territory, the government and its institutions. One likely scenario is that they maintain their control on Afghanistan and further strengthen it in the coming years. In that case, a constructive engagement with Pakistan will be important to prevent negative implications and build positive relations.

The second scenario could be violence, terrorism and internal fighting, pushing the country into a new wave of chaos and civil war. This scenario will certainly also have adverse consequences for Pakistan.

There are some indications that the US thinking is to encourage the counter-terrorism operations along and across the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. If Pakistan is compelled to take this course, it can further expose our vulnerabilities through the 2,600-km long border with Afghanistan. It may lead to the continuation or an increase in the TTP sponsored violence, widening of gaps in bilateral engagement and deeper public resentment in Afghanistan about Pakistan’s Afghan policy. It can also dent Pakistan’s expectations for promoting regional connectivity with and through Afghanistan under our National Security Policy, unveiled in January 2022 under the geo-economic rubric.

This may also bring pressures on vital dimensions of cross-border and transit trade, and movement of the people. If the security and economic conditions in Afghanistan continue to deteriorate, the number of Afghans leaving towards Pakistan and other places in the world will obviously increase, creating new challenges for Islamabad. It would be, therefore, prudent for Pakistan to remove impediments towards engagement with the Afghan interim government and resume state-to-state as well as institutional interaction led by the political government. This approach can pave the way for addressing the current challenges and creating an environment of fruitful cooperation with Afghanistan. Partnerships should be crafted with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Türkiye and Iran to make the use of our strategic advantage in Afghanistan. This engagement-oriented approach can effectively help us counter the maneuvers of our detractors in Afghanistan, particularly India.

India

Stalemate with India is likely to continue for two reasons: One, the present political polarisation in Pakistan does not provide a reasonable space for exploring an innovative way of moving forward towards bilateral engagement or even resorting to back channels used many times in the past. Two, India under the BJP and Modi has completely fallen to the long-held concepts of Hindutva, taking new brutal manifestation of anti-Muslim and anti-Pakistan actions in the public domain, sponsored, owned and protected by the state. Therefore, any thaw in the relations seems improbable.

From a longer-term perspective, it is important for both Pakistan and India to evolve a model of interaction and engagement respecting each other’s positions on key issues. For Pakistan, the struggle of the people of Jammu and Kashmir for their right to self-determination is a fundamental issue. However, the two countries also have potential and complementarity for economic interaction and trade, which can be mutually beneficial. The key challenge is that in the aftermath of India’s unilateral measures in Indian occupied Kashmir, what will be the way forward for a comprehensive dialogue which can be on the lines of past’s Composite Dialogue  or even under a new format.

The global environment of increased tensions between the US and China with New Delhi part of anti-China fora like Quad, also restricts space for Pakistan-India rapprochement. The dominant thinking within the Indian strategic mindset currently is not to show any flexibility towards Pakistan, embroiled and weakened by its own domestic challenges.

China

Pakistan and China are truly all-weather friends. China launched CPEC as the flagship project of Belt-and-Road-Initiative (BRI) and made investment of over $62 billion in Pakistan’s infrastructure, development of the Gwadar Port, power plants and in many other areas. Recently, the progress in CPEC projects has slowed down and its extension to Afghanistan has also not been possible because of the complexity of the situation there.

On the whole, Pakistan-China relations are likely to continue on a positive trajectory during the coming year. The Chinese government and the Chinese firms will have ample opportunities for investments in Pakistan, particularly in the energy and infra-structure sectors. Bilateral cooperation in the field of defence and security cooperation would continue to gradually expand in the coming years. China and Pakistan will also maintain close coordination on strategic issues in the global and regional organizations, particularly the UN.

Iran

Iran is another important neighbour of Pakistan, having shared common interests. But the economic relations between the two countries do not commensurate with their actual potential. Despite the US economic sanctions against Iran being a key impediment to expanding commercial and economic exchanges, the two countries are likely to make progress in strengthening border management and increasing border trade and purchase of electricity for parts of Balochistan in the coming years. Pakistan and Iran are also likely to strengthen their consultative process on Afghanistan for achieving durable peace, combating drugs trade and exploring joint economic initiatives.

Regional Cooperation

Over the years, Pakistan has not been able to develop and deepen partnerships with key countries of the region such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Türkiye, Qatar and the Central Asian countries. Recently, the China-Arab strategic interaction has opened new opportunities for Pakistan’s collaboration in terms of exports and the labour markets. However, a lot in these relations will depend upon how the government is able to focus on identifying sector-based opportunities with each of these countries.

In the final analysis, for the past few years Pakistan has been exploring ways of transforming its relations with the neighbouring countries in accordance with geo-economic compulsions. However, at the time of this crucial adjustment, the domestic politics is going through a turmoil. In addition, last year’s change in Afghanistan has compounded the security challenges. The economy is also in a dire state. In such a scenario it is difficult to expect any major change in the dynamics of our regional relations during the coming year.

The writer is a former ambassador of Pakistanto Afghanistan