PDM in a Blind Alley

PTI’s show of strength in Punjab pushes the Shehbaz govt on a slippery slope

Islamabad: The Shehbaz Sharif government appears to be running out of options following the decision of the Punjab Chief Minister, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, to dissolve the Punjab Assembly.

This comes as the second surprise for the ruling coalition of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) in as many days. The first one came when Elahi finally showed up at the Punjab Assembly session past the midnight hour on Wednesday and took a successful vote of confidence.

Contrary to expectations of all and sundry, Pervaiz Elahi has not only proved his majority in the house, but also proved wrong the expectations of many that he may not be willing to go for the dissolution of the provincial assembly months before it completed its constitutional term, says a political analyst, Prof Naeemullah Khan.

The PDM government, a conglomerate of over a dozen political parties, is already facing difficulties on the economic and the administrative fronts, and this show of strength by Punjab’s ruling coalition – comprising Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) – has almost pushed it into a dead alley.

The setback in Punjab is not the only one the federal government faces at the moment. Political turmoil is brewing in Sindh province where the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P), a part of the PDM alliance, has taken an extreme position against another key PDM partner, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), over issues related to the local government elections. And in Balochistan province, some coalition partners, including the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) and Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M) have expressed reservations, among other issues, over a recently signed agreement with a Canadian mining company to take over the Reko Diq mining project.

Meanwhile, the country is caught up in one of the worst spells of economic downspin in recent decades. The Pakistani rupee continues to slide against the US dollar, and an unbridled inflation is causing prices of essential commodities to rise beyond the purchasing power of the common folks. Its latest example is the wheat flour crisis which has acquired a serious dimension.

Things are being further complicated by the PTI’s push for the dissolution of the assemblies of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), the two provinces where it rules. By doing so, it intends to force the federal government to dissolve the government and call general elections. But the federal government has been insisting that given the economic crisis, and the fact that the term of the national parliament is not yet over, it will not go for general elections. Instead, elections will only be held to the assemblies of Punjab and KP provinces if PTI dissolves the governments there.

But political analysts say that with elections taking place in more than 65 percent of the country, the remaining regions will automatically be sucked in.

If elections are held in only two provinces, and the PTI and its allies manage to win them, it will have an impact on the general elections that follow later, and its aftermath, analysts say. With the PTI government in two provinces, the party will have a psychological edge over the PDM. Besides, the PTI may also be tempted to influence election results in the provinces it rules, thereby triggering more political disputes.

Sources in the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) informed Bol News that former prime minister Nawaz Sharif was annoyed with the party’s failure in handling the situation and had sought an explanation from the head of PML-N Punjab, Rana Sanaullah.

Rana Sanaullah, who is also the federal minister for interior, has sent an initial report to Nawaz Sharif, and will submit a detailed report after holding a thorough probe into the reasons why the PDM failed to prevent Pervaiz Elahi from winning the confidence vote, they say.

When contacted, Rana Sanaullah told Bol News: “We are political people and are never averse to elections. And in my view there is no constitutional bar against holding elections in Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa following the dissolution of assemblies in both these provinces.”

He further said that elections to the National Assembly will be held on the completion of its mandated term, along with elections to the parliaments of the remaining two provinces — Balochistan and Sindh.

PDM sources attributed their failure in Punjab to infighting within the PML-N’s ranks. Bringing in people like Atta Tarar and Malik Ahmad Khan and pushing back veterans like Rana Mashhood and some others considered close to Hamza Shehbaz Sharif were major causes of the recent debacle, they said.

Even before her appointment as chief organizer of the party, Maryam Nawaz Sharif has been bringing in her loyalists to key positions within the party, leading to disenchantment among some senior party leaders who are well-entrenched in the Punjab politics but were sidelined.

Another credible source in the party said that a major reason for PML-N’s failure was the overconfidence of its leaders that they would be able to “manage” some PTI members of Punjab Assembly. Those “managed” PTI MPs went back on their commitments at the eleventh hour and voted for Pervez Elahi, the source said.

Interior Minister Rana Sanullah, also confirmed that they were in contact with some 12 to 15 coalition government MPs, but most of them backed out at the time of voting, except five of them.

Another senior party leader, who is also part of the federal cabinet, said that political debacle in Punjab was a result of overconfidence among those handling the things in the Punjab Assembly. He did not agree that it was the result of internal differences within the PML-N.

In this changed scenario, Maryam Nawaz will be returning to the country by the end of this month to lead the party’s campaign in Punjab. Meanwhile, some senior party leaders, including Rana Sanaullah and Mian Javid Latif, are of the view that Nawaz Sharif himself should return and lead the party in elections as he alone has the capacity to counter the rising popularity of PTI.

Parliamentary sources confirmed that there is a strong voice within the PDM that in case of dissolution of the assemblies of Punjab and KP, general elections should be called instead of holding elections only in these two provinces. Also, the PDM should engage the PTI in dialogue to do necessary electoral reforms that are needed to make the election process free, fair and transparent.

Some senior leaders in the PTI also want electoral reforms ahead of the next general elections, and even the party’s senior vice-president, Fawad Chaudhry, has on recent occasions extended an offer of dialogue to the PDM government.

PTI sources say that even now, if a serious effort is made in this regard, the PTI would consider it because it, too, desires free and fair elections. The office of the President could be the right forum for such a dialogue, and once the broader contours of a consensus have been laid down, the two sides could sit together to finalize its nitty-gritty, they say.

In another development, the PTI leadership has decided to once again take up the issue of the acceptance of their MNAs’ resignations with the Speaker of the National Assembly. This could further increase the pressure on an already fragile coalition government.

The PTI central leaders, Fawad Chaudhry, Asad Qaisar, Shah Mahmood Qureshi and Pervaiz Khattak will likely meet the speaker in coming days and push him to accept the resignations the PTI MPs had submitted. In case the speaker adopts delaying tactics, says Fawaz Chaudhry, then the option of taking the matter to the Supreme Court is open.

“I think the PDM government should accept our demand of general elections so that a government with the mandate of the people comes to power and steer the country out of the prevailing political and economic quagmire,” Fawad Chaudhry said.

Political analysts say that while things continue to be bad for the PDM, the situation is not rosy for the PTI either. In case the PTI dissolves two provincial assemblies, the governments there will be replaced by caretaker setups. Now, given the mutual hostility between the two sides, if the outgoing chief minister and leader of the opposition fail to evolve a consensus on the person who will head the caretaker setup, the matter will end up at the Election Commission where the leader of the house and the leader of the opposition will propose two names each, and the Election Commission will choose one of them to head the caretaker setup.

Now, if a claim made publicly by the PTI that the Chief Election Commissioner was a “PML-N man” is correct, then he would obviously go with the choice of the PML-N, analysts say.