PML-N’s New Challenge

Speculations are rife about the ruling party’s future

LAHORE: Once the most popular party in Punjab and elsewhere in the country, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has suffered many setbacks ever since former prime minister, Imran Khan, was ousted from power in a confidence vote in April last year. It has faced defeats at the hands of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in the 17 July by-elections in which it lost 15 out of 20 Punjab Assembly seats, and again in by-elections held on 16 October to the National Assembly in which Imran Khan won six out of seven seats that he contested.

A further setback came when it failed to prevent Pervez Elahi both from winning a vote of confidence at the Punjab Assembly and then dissolving it.

According to PML-N insiders, the diminishing confidence within the party ranks and its supporters is mainly triggered by the continuing absence from the country of Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam.

And this appears to be causing rifts within the top party leadership, as one PML-N source confirmed. “Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz are extremely angry at PML-N’s Punjab leadership after their defeat at the hands of the Pervez Elahi-led alliance in the no-confidence vote at a time when party leaders Rana Sanaullah and Ata Tarar were making tall claims to the contrary,” he said.

According to another PML-N insider, setbacks against the PTI in Punjab, and the economic mess created by the policies of Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, was creating unrest among the top PML-N ranks and had led such top leaders as former prime minister, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, and former finance minister, Miftah Ismail, to openly criticize their own government. There were rumours that both these leaders may quit the party, he said.

Shahid Khaqan Abbasi has been saying that his party is in the government but he is not part of the government. He has been pushing for a wider dialogue among various stakeholders to solve the problems the country faces. “We need to stop the blame game once and for all, and come and sit on the dialogue table to decide how we can save the country which is on the verge of a default,” he said, adding that in his opinion no single party could address the gigantic issues faced by the country at the moment.

Speaking to Bol News, political scientist Dr Marium Kamal said that differences within the PML-N are not unexpected. It was being predicted long ago that the Shehbaz Sharif clique will depart from PML-N due to succession issue.

“Some of the senior party members were not happy with Maryam Nawaz’s increasingly assertive role in party affairs. There were other differences as well. These differences are becoming more obvious with the decline in PML-N’s political standing, leading to internal cracks, especially between Maryam Nawaz and Shehbaz Sharif,” she said.

The continued absence of Nawaz Sharif has further aggravated the situation, she added. “His unjustified stay in London was already proving fatal for the party, and now the abrupt absence of Maryam Nawaz from the scene raises many questions.”

According to Dr Kamal, appointing Maryam Nawaz along with Shahid Khaqan Abbasi as the party’s senior vice president led to hitches and internal complications. The cleavages became more obvious with the removal of Miftah Ismail as finance minister and his replacement by Ishaq Dar, apparently on directives from London.

“Unfortunately, the economic wizard (Ishaq Dar) further damaged the economic situation without any rational justification, and Miftah Ismail’s loud opposition against Dar’s policies led to the opening of many unexpected bitter fronts,” she said, adding that a worsening economic crisis and threat of a potential default have led to what PML-N would have least expected – a resurgence in Imran Khan’s popularity and public support for his narrative.

“Inclusive politics cannot sustain if decisions are based on vertical hierarchy rather than consensus, if options are influenced by unelected people and if politics is based on self-interest rather than the common welfare of the state,” Dr Kamal noted, underlining Khaqan Abbasi’s views mentioned above.

PML-N leader, Rana Sanaullah, denies these views and has stated that there is no leadership crisis within PML-N, and that Nawaz Sharif would return to the country ahead of the elections to lead the PML-N’s campaign.

But political analyst, Dr Hasan Askari Rizvi, says that there is definitely a leadership crisis within PML-N, especially in Punjab. “Only God could save a party that is represented by faces such as those of Ata Tarar and Rana Sanaullah. Nobody respects Rana Sanauallah, people are only scared of him,” he said.

When asked about likely defections within the PML-N, Dr Askari said, however, that even if some of the key leaders leave PML-N, it will not be fatally damaged and will survive.

Maryam Nawaz to lead PMLN in next general elections?

In order to counter the rising popularity of Imran Khan, the PML-N leadership has appointed Maryam Nawaz Sharif as senior vice president of the party and its chief organiser,. When she returns to Pakistan, she will have a gigantic task of not just reorganising the party and motivating the party workers but also to come up with a powerful narrative to counter Imran Khan.

Speaking to Bol News, Senior PMLN leader and spokesperson of both Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz, Muhammad Zubair, explained that after defeating Imran Khan in the vote of no confidence, the key leaders of PML-N got busy trying to reverse the politico-economic complications left behind by the Imran Khan government. In the meantime, Imran Khan continued to build his narrative and that was the reason PML-N’s performance during the by-elections couldn’t come up to the mark. “In such a scenario, our eyes were on the next general elections, and out priority was to restructure the party and mobilise workers for those elections. Maryam Nawaz was appointed as the party’s chief organizer its joint senior vice-president keeping that in mind,” he said.

He maintained that Maryam is an excellent choice for restructuring and reorganising the party ahead of next general elections because she is a wonderful orator and a crowd puller. “Some people say that she has been given party positions because she is Nawaz Sharif’s daughter. If that would have been the case, then Hassan Nawaz and Hussain Nawaz are his sons too, but they are nowhere on the political scene. Maryam is a natural leader,” he said.

Agreeing with Zubair, an independent political analyst, Dr Riffat Hussain, said that the decision to appoint Maryam Nawaz as the party’s senior vice-president was based on her contribution as a loyal and hard working party worker who was likely to pose a serious challenge to Imran Khan whenever general elections were held.

“Of all the PML-N leaders, she is the most courageous and bold, qualities that would hold her in good stead. She is an excellent choice to take the baton from the party’s ageing leadership,” he said.

Analyst and politician, Ayaz Amir, also believes that PML-N has no other choice but to bring Maryam Nawaz to the fore because she has the ability to pull the crowds. Shehbaz Sharif and others are not capable of achieving this aim. They failed in addressing the issues faced by common people, and that is what led to the party’s losses during the by-elections.

For Dr Hasan Askari, appointing Maryam Nawaz in the top party cadres is a step in the direction of ultimately making her the political heir of Nawaz Sharif. “Nawaz Sharif always wanted to see his daughter, and not his brother Shehbaz Sharif or his nephew Hamza Shehbaz, as his political heir,” he said, adding that it might worsen the rift within the family but they are likely to stand united and not part ways.