Running from Reality

The PDM stands brutally exposed after the abrupt removal of an elected premier, Imran Khan

Lahore: The last eight months of the year 2022 clearly comprised a turmoil-filled period for Pakistan since an elected prime minister, Imran Khan was ousted on April 10 through a vote of no confidence by the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), a move that pushed the country towards grave economic instability and uncertainty.

The PDM, which came to power with a promise to provide relief to the masses by overcoming the rising inflation and fixing the economy, have failed miserably on all fronts in its eight-month tenure so far.

The debilitating economic conditions, rising inflation, closure of industries, rapidly falling exports, growing security threats and chaotic governance have made it very obvious now that the Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif-led coalition government came to power without any roadmap whatsoever for the betterment of the country.

“The masses have rejected the PDM coalition government through their votes in the Punjab, KP and the National Assembly by-polls as PTI had won 26 out of 34 seats of provincial and National Assemblies which is 76 percent,” said senior PTI official Fawad Chaudhry and added that Imran Khan is at the peak of his popularity and is likely to clean sweep the elections whenever they are held.

He maintained that the masses had rejected the imposed corrupt rulers through their votes which is a vote of no confidence from them towards PDM leadership and the majority of the nation stands with the demand of Imran Khan for snap polls.

According to political insiders, the only agenda of the PDM government was to end the accountability cases against its corrupt leadership and provide them with a clean chit to and they had managed to achieve it by amending the NAB laws and by appointing hand-picked officials in the investigating bodies such as the FIA.

The other agenda of PDM was to make sure that elections are not held using the Electronic Voting Machines and i-voting rights are not given to overseas Pakistanis as they believed that if elections are held using EVMs, they would stand no chance of victory.

“In order to stop Imran Khan from exposing and convicting their corrupt leaders and to ensure that he doesn’t come to power again, the PDM leadership had ousted him through a conspiracy and played havoc with the country’s economy,” the political insiders maintained.

Now that 2022 have ended, the major questions that have emerged are, Will Imran Khan be able to dissolve the assemblies in 2023? Will 2023 be the year of elections? Is there a long-term caretaker setup in the offing? Will the political turmoil persist and masses will continue to suffer in 2023? Will the economy of Pakistan improve in 2023? Will the country able to overcome the current wave of terrorism?

To get the answers to these pertinent questions, Bol News spoke to leading politicians, political analysts and experts this week.

Political Scientist Dr Marium Kamal said no peace can be seen on the political, economic and security fronts in 2022. “It proved to be an extremely challenging year, not only for the political parties but for the masses as well.”

She said the chaotic circumstances will continue until the 2023-election but any new set-up will, of course, be confronted with all the above challenges.

“Imran Khan is completely ready for the election phase with better planning and visionary leadership as compared to the previous 2018-election,” she observed.

Dr Kamal went on to add that Imran Khan has been tested through the good and the bad during these times which has made him a more experienced candidate in the upcoming year.

“Secondly, the undeniable popular support for him will continue as the most decisive factor in the upcoming election. It will be difficult for all the political parties to match with Imran Khan’s popular mass support,” she maintained.

She noted that since April 2022, Imran Khan has been leading an aggressive political campaign, which has been far more effective than any other political party’s election preparations.

“On the other hand, the PDM political parties are enjoying the 77-member national cabinet and just trying to maintain the status-quo, while waiting for the right time for the elections,” she pointed out.

Agreeing with her, acclaimed Political Analyst Dr Hasan Askari Rizvi said that in 2023, it seems that Pakistan will be able to overcome the new wave of terrorism prevailing in the country with the joint counter-terrorism strategy where army, paramilitary forces and police will be able to get rid of terrorists. “The top military brass has a zero tolerance policy for terrorists and terrorism, and they will get rid of it in 2023.

“On the political front, the confrontation between PTI and PDM would persist due to which our economy would continue to suffer,” Dr Askari observed.

He believed that the political parties need to tone down their political idioms against each other and have to come to the dialogue table or develop some sort of consensus for the future course of action for the socio-economic stability of the country.

Will Imran Khan be able to dissolve the assemblies?

“Imran Khan wanted to dissolve the assemblies because he wants an early election and it seems that 2023 will be an election year,” the political analyst said leading Political Analyst Dr Riffat Hussain. “But I do not think dissolution will serve any good purpose in 2023, except that it will put the PDM on a back foot.

“As I see it, elections will be held by November if the interim setup does not intervene,” he predicted. “But his (Imran’s) wish to have a two thirds majority in NA will remain a wish.”

Partially agreeing with Dr Riffat, well known Political Analyst Zunaira Azhar said Imran Khan won’t be able to dissolve the assemblies in 2023 because of the court order involved now.

“Also the constitutional debates will be taken as a bait to delay the elections as far as possible,” she observed. “Imran Khan’s option of assembly dissolution is nothing but a political strategy to pressurize the government for early election.  Otherwise, it is a hard choice for all PTI members and their potential alliance in Punjab,” she noted.

Is a long term interim government on cards?

Dr Askari believed that the military establishment is in favour of a long-term technocrat government but there is no such provision or cushion for such form of government in the constitution.

“The constitution of Pakistan only talks about an interim government for a period of three months, and after that they have to conduct general elections,” he said.

“They will have to go to the court to get the approval for a long-term interim government,” he added.

He further said that if a long term technocrat government is formed, it will have pros and cons for both PTI and PDM.

“The PDM will be able to keep Imran Khan out of power, but principally, they cannot support this type of government,” Dr Askari observed.

“On the other hand Imran Khan will be able to get rid of the PDM government but he also knows that a long term technocratic government could affect his popularity graph and the public pulse which is in his favour at the moment. So, both the PDM and PTI will not support such a set-up,” he said.

Agreeing with him, Dr Riffat said though the idea of a government by technocrats is doing rounds, it is not a viable option given Pakistan’s internal problems.

Giving her comments on the issue, Zunaira Azhar said if a technocratic government is on the cards, then the establishment would have to deal with the backlash of the PDM and PPP in addition to the already charged up PTI besides the issues of mounting terrorism and the economic meltdown.

“Not only that, there’s no constitutional niche available for any technocrat government. So the people would not accept this coup,” she maintained.

Zunaira observed that the further the elections are delayed, the more reluctant the international lenders would be to talk to a government without the public mandate.

Senior PTI leader Fawad Chaudhry, speaking about the rumours of a technocrat government that are taking rounds, said the convicted ex-premier Nawaz Sharif was keen on such a set-up as he wanted to delay the elections where a certain defeat awaited his party, the PML-N.

“The people of Pakistan should not be seen as laboratory rats on which a new experiment could be done every day,” he said. “Bringing a technocratic government for six months or 2.5 years would be a joke with our country. Such experiments and jokes must end once and for all now.”

“The PTI will not support any such move and we will strongly condemn going out of the Constitution. Under any circumstances, a system beyond the Constitution is not acceptable to us,” he asserted.

Agreeing with him, Senior PPP Leader Qamar Zaman Kaira said that there is no such cushion for long term technocratic government in the Constitution of Pakistan. “In the past we have witnessed such experiments which backfired miserably,” he noted.

Is 2023 an election year?

“PDM will never hold elections. If you tell them that on one side there is death and on the other side there are elections, they will choose death,” PTI leader Fawad Chaudhry said.

They have failed to run the country, and want to shy away from elections too and on the other hand they are closing their cases and have played havoc with the country and its economy.

“Our party will restart the nation-wide protest movement against inflation, deteriorating economic conditions, gas and electricity load-shedding etc very soon. After three weeks, God willing, Imran Khan will join this movement and we will be on the streets till the end of this government,” he said.

However, Kaira disagreed with the PTI’s stance and reiterated that the elections will be held on their scheduled time.

The return of Nawaz Sharif…

Dr Maryum Kamal is not ready to make any definite prediction for 2023 but she said that 2023 could possibly see the return of Nawaz in January. “The mounting challenge of 2023 budget will also be a big hurdle for the PDM because the IMF program will end in June 2023.”

“Thus, under the broader frame, it can be predicted that the incumbent government won’t be able to continue for more than a few months and would need Nawaz to lead the election caravan against Imran Khan because none of the present political representatives are able to contain Imran Khan’s street-power,”she said.

‘PML-N will try to get Imran Khan disqualified’

Relaible sources in the PML-N also confirmed to this scribe that an effort will also be made to get Imran Khan disqualified from courts or through Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) so that he could be stopped from coming to power.

“However, the senior leadership of PDM has warned Nawaz Sharif and the powers that be to refrain from any such move any such move because that would be the last nail in the alliance’s coffin.

The sourced went on to add that the PDM alliance is keen to have some sort of face saving and to devise a narrative to justify their political standing among the masses before entering the 2023 election.

And lastly, a safe exit from Ishaq Dar’s unproductive policies that have resulted in a massive economic fall out.