A Constant Threat

Pakistan successfully held the last three elections when terrorism challenge was far more graver than it is now

I sincerely hope and pray that that Chief Justice of Pakistan Umar Ata Bandial, Justice Ishtiaq Ibrahim and Justice Syed Arshad Ali of the Peshawar High Court, as well as Chief Justice Lahore High Court Justice Muhammad Ameer Bhatti would be able to find some time to read these lines while hearing the cases related to the General Elections in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) assemblies. We all know that some of the leading members of the Shehbaz Sharif government and its supporters are flagging the prevailing security challenges as a pretext to delay the elections. I am not a legal or constitutional expert, but being a professional security expert, I have something to say on the issue, based on data.

I am sure that everyone remembers the law-and-order challenge before the February 18th, 2008, General Elections. Who can forget its preceding year when former premier Benazir Bhutto was assassinated in Rawalpindi on December 27th while she was leading her election campaign? In October 2007, she had narrowly escaped the first assassination bid when suicide bombers attacked her rally in Karachi, killing more than 180 people. That year in July 2007, the military conducted an operation on militants holed up in the Red Mosque in the federal capital. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) was also formed just two months before the general elections.

According to statistical data collected by the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), at least 1,940 people were killed and 2,807 were injured in 639 terrorist attacks in 2007. According to the PICSS database, January 2008 witnessed 459 deaths in 39 attacks — the majority of them in KP and the erstwhile FATA region. That was the time when militants were holding large territories of the FATA and Malakand division. Compared to 2023, the security situation was far more challenging, and grave when Pakistan went for elections in 2008.

If the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) can hold elections in such a bleak security situation, why cannot it hold the polls now?

Going by the statistics, the number of terrorist attacks in 2022 more than 40 percent lower than 2007. In 2022, 380 terrorist attacks were reported in Pakistan in which 539 people were killed and 836 injured. That means there was a 72 percent reduction in deaths and a 70 percent decline in the number of injured in 2022. The number of deaths in January 2008 alone was more than the whole year of 2022.

Now let’s look at the terrorism trends before the 2013 General Elections, which were held on May 11. According to PICSS data, the four preceding months before May 2013 witnessed 366 terror attacks in the country in which 1,120 people were killed and 2,151 were injured. That means those four months witnessed 52 percent more deaths and 61 percent more injuries than the whole year of 2022. PICSS data shows that political parties were the major targets of terrorists during the 2013 elections campaign.

A PICSS report says: “The militants killed at least 119 people and left more than 438 others injured in some 59 attacks on different candidates, elections offices, rallies and public meetings of different political parties, polling stations and office of election commission during the 60-day long election process, starting from 21st of March to 20th of May, 2013.”

The Awami National Party (ANP), the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), and independent candidates were the main targets of the terrorists during the 2013 election campaign.

There is no doubt that terrorist attacks increased by around 32 percent during 2022 compared with 2021. However, the situation is much better compared to 2008 and 2013. Today, the Pakistani security forces are also better trained and equipped than they were during the days of 2008 and 2013 general elections.

If someone wants to compare the data of 2018 even then there is not much difference. In fact, more people were killed in terror attacks in 2018 than in 2022. In 2018, 579 people were killed and 960 got injured in terrorist attacks compared to 2022 in which terrorism claimed 539 lives and left 836 people injured.

As evident from the terrorism trends during the years of the last three general elections, it is evident that the security situation cannot become an excuse to delay the electoral exercise.

What else can be the other ‘excuse’ to delay the elections? After all, the government and its cheerleaders have to find an excuse to delay them in two provincial assemblies.

In my humble opinion, the delaying tactics by the coalition government, especially the PMLN, are aimed at paving the way for the installation of a technocratic government. If an excuse is found to delay the elections beyond 90 days of the dissolution of provincial assemblies, the same excuse can be used to delay elections for the National Assembly. That would be a perfect base for technocrat setup in the name of an interim setup.

There is a thinking in various power-quarters that by delaying elections for two to three years, Pakistan economy and politics can be fixed and even rebooted. But these so-called “great minds” have not learnt any lesson from the past, and there is little hope that they will learn anything in the future, too. They appear cursed to repeat the same mistakes over and over again that includes reviving the political fortunes of some of the most controversial and corrupt politicians. This means that Pakistan appears all set to remain in the clutches of an ever-growing political instability that has all the potential to become an existential risk for the state.

The only easy and sure-shot way out of the crisis is holding early, free, fair and transparent elections. Only a popular government with a fresh mandate will have the capacity and ability to take the tough decision which the country needs at this critical juncture. This is a must to revive the trust of the people in the state and its institutions, restore political stability in the country and put its economy back on track.