Expansionism, or Ideology?

Almost three months since the war in Ukraine began, Russia is talking about ending the current phase of the conflict. So, will the war be over? From the looks of it, it will expand possibly to countries like Finland and Sweden. They’re looking to join the Nato and the Nato is rolling out the red carpet which is both interesting and worrying.

Interesting because this is exactly what we saw in the run-up to the war in Ukraine. The Nato is encouraging potential new members. Russia is reading the riot act, another conflict escalating. Worrying because Nato was accused of forcing Russia into this war leaving Moscow with no choice but to defend its security interests. They are doing the same again. So, who wants the war to end? Will Europe see a wider conflict and what is Nato doing to end hostilities?

When can you say a war is won? Is it, when your enemy surrenders or when you decimate your rivals? Legendary military strategist, Sun Tzu says neither. According to him, war is fought for political goals, if those were achieved then yes the war has been won, if not, it is a failure. Let’s apply that theory to Russia’s war, what was Vladimir Putin’s political goal? To keep Ukraine out of Nato and to have less Nato on his borders.

Has Putin achieved that? Not yet, in fact, he could be getting more Nato on his borders.

Finland and their leaders have agreed to join Nato. According to the joint statement from Finnish President and Prime Minister, “As a member of Nato, Finland would strengthen the entire defence alliance. Finland must apply for Nato membership without delay, we hope that the national steps still needed to make this decision will be taken rapidly within the next few days.” Since this statement came from the prime minister and president, it’s official that Finland will apply for the Nato membership.

According to the Wion Executive Editor, Palki Sharma Upadhyay, Sweden will do the same. Now, what will that process look like? Membership can take up to one year until then Finland will get observer status. All 30 Nato allies must agree to admit the new members and this approval must come from their parliament; for example, Joe Biden cannot approve it, the US congress has to approve it.

Logistically, this process will take time but in effect, it is a done deal. The Nato chief has already reacted to the announcement, he says, the membership will be quote-unquote smooth and swift.

What about Russia? Needless to say, Russia is livid. The Kremlin is calling it a threat to their security. Finland and Russia are neighbours, their shared border is more than 300 kilometres long plus it is very close to Moscow as well; less than 1,000 kilometres. If you put a missile near the border, Moscow is within range and this is precisely what Putin was against. He invaded Ukraine to stop the same thing from happening.

The question is will he do it again? Will Russia attack Finland next? Well, they have done it before. In 1939, the Soviet Union invaded Finland, they kicked off the notorious winter war but this time Russia will hesitate. We can think of two reasons why, number one, Russia is already fighting a war, opening another front could prove to be a disaster, and number two, Finland’s army is much stronger than Ukraine’s, they have American weapons in their arsenal plus conscription for all adult males.

So, logically Putin should not invade; just one problem, political analysts said the same thing about Ukraine that logically Putin would not invade. Well, he did. So, Finland and Sweden need an insurance policy and some deterrence against Russia. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson tried to do that, he visited Sweden and Finland and signed a security agreement with both the countries. The agreement says that if either country is attacked, Britain will help them. According to Boris Johnson, “From the high North to the Baltics and beyond, our armed forces will train, operate and exercise together. Marrying our defence and security capabilities and formalising a pledge that we will always come to one another’s aid.”

Will this include boots on the ground? Boris Johnson did not rule it out, he said the assistance will depend on what the other side is asking for and it’s not just Britain, the US and Germany have also promised military assistance. So, here’s what could happen in the next couple of months, Russia may not attack Finland but they will take on an aggressive posture; possibly more drills near the northern borders or even missile deployments. As for Nato, more joint drills with Sweden and Finland and more military transfers.

According to Wion news, America and Britain will rotate troops in the Nordic. Where does all of this leave Europe? On the brink of a wider war, imagine the firepower at play. One mistake, one misunderstanding and this could escalate into a nuclear conflict which makes you wonder what happened to good old diplomacy.

Putin specifically drew a red line for the west, no Nato at my border as he said but the West is doing exactly that. The same question was put to Finland’s president and he responded that “when you ask whether they (Russia) see a possible Finnish joining. Well, if that would be the case we join. Well, my response would be that you caused this, look at the mirror.”

I get that counter-argument, Finland is, after all, a sovereign nation, it can join any military alliance it wants but so is Ukraine. Ukraine too is a sovereign nation seeking Nato membership. Why their process is not smooth and swift, in fact, let’s forget Nato why not a European Union membership at least. Even that is being denied to Ukraine.

So, this Nato expansionism is not about ideology, it’s about politics, Finland and Sweden are rich countries with strong armies so they get to walk in smooth and swift. Ukraine is neither, so they get ignored. Nato’s only objective was to use Ukraine as a pawn, a tool to provoke and agitate Russia and this is not happening for the first time; in many ways history is repeating itself, back in 1997, Nato leaders held a summit in Madrid that summit admitted three new members Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic.

The 1997 summit kicked off Nato’s problematic wave of expansions. Next month there is another Nato summit, guess where? The same place, Madrid. If things move fast, Sweden and Finland could get nominal approval at this summit and so it continues a needless clash of inflated egos. A Nato obsessed with expansion and a Russia responding with brutal violence.