Is it a good idea to open trade with India?

Pakistan and India are the two most populous and largest economies in South Asia, reportedly. Both countries have great potential for intra-regional trade as they are the dominant constituents of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). According to the Finance Minister Miftah Ismail, Pakistan can consider importing vegetables and other edible items from India to facilitate the people of Pakistan in wake of the destruction of crops due to the recent floods. However, ‘proper’ trade between India and Pakistan has always depended on ‘normal’ relations. This week Bol News talks to four leading experts regarding trade with India…

Dr Ashfaque H Khan
Dean and Professor at NUST

Pakistan should be trading with every country in the world, however, this is not the right time to open trade with India. The current environment to trade between the two countries is not conducive. After India revoked the special status of Indian held Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019 by removing sections of Article 370, the Imran Khan government suspended all kinds of trade with India. Modi should start a meaningful and comprehensive dialogue with Pakistan.

If they want to open trade they should create a friendly environment and build confidence between both nations. Since the partition of the subcontinent in 1947, the two countries have been involved in several wars, conflicts, and military standoffs. A long-running dispute over Kashmir and cross-border terrorism have been the predominant cause of conflict between the two states. How can Pakistan even consider trade with its neighbour during this time? The same neighbour divided Pakistan into two parts.

If you look historically, the trade between India and Pakistan has never been done smoothly or normally. It has been very erratic. For example, there have been times when Pakistan faced shortages of tomatoes, potatoes and onions which led us to turn to India for imports. Similarly, when India went through such shortages it turned toward Pakistan. Whenever the relationship between India and Pakistan aggravated, India stopped the flow of goods to Pakistan by hiding behind non-tariff barriers. For example, when Pakistan faced a sugar crisis in the late 90s and it wanted to import sugar from India, the Indian government played tricks to stop the exports.

They asked someone from Calcutta to go to the court and file a petition that if India exports sugar to Pakistan it will create a crisis in India and the price of sugar will rise. Therefore, asking the court to not allow the export of sugar to Pakistan and the court agreed. So India has been using such a form of non-tariff barriers with Pakistan, depending on its relationship.

Abdul Basit
Former high commissioner of Pakistan to India

If someone can assure me that by doing trade with India we can overcome our economic problems, I am all for it. This is not a valid argument. We took a principled stance of banning trade with India after August 5, 2019, when India illegally and constitutionally stripped the Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) of its special status so we decided on August 7 following a meeting of the national security committee.

So in my view, unless India takes the necessary steps, there is no need for us to revise our trade policy vis-a-vis India. If we want to deal with the present food crisis soon after the flooding in Pakistan, I think we have other options too like Iran, China and other Central Asian countries. Why should we count only on India? This is not the first time. Even before the floods hit Pakistan, I remember our new Foreign Minister Bilawal addressing a think tank in Islamabad saying that Pakistan should resume its trade with India. This was even before the floods hit Pakistan.

There is a lobby in Pakistan which does want to trade with India for their vested interests. As far as the situation created by floods is concerned, that can be handled by exercising other options rather than resuming our trade with India without getting anything in return, especially when it comes to the Kashmir issue. I fail to understand why Miftah Ismail recently gave this statement about the government considering importing edible items from India. We are good at saying things viscerally.

This is what bothers me. We utter things without any consideration and this reflects that we do not do our homework. Subsequently, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif had to come to the front and say that we are not considering any such option. Our problem is that we take diplomacy very casually.

Lt General (Rtd) Amjad Shuaib

Defence analyst

Earlier, when the trade was halted with India it was stated by the authorities that the trade will not be resumed until they restore Article 370 of the constitution. It states that the Indian held Jammu and Kashmir were administered by India as a state from 1952 to 31 October 2019, and Article 370 conferred on it the power to have a separate constitution, a state flag, and autonomy of internal administration.

India has not restored it yet. We must show some dignity and self-respect. Secondly, this trade is not so crucial. Trade with India will only benefit them, not us. Our economy is not dependent on trade with India. Hence, we must stick to our political stance. The ministers who want to have trade with India must be working with an American directive who are forcing them to revive their relationship with India. They are only finding an excuse to open trade with India. People like Mian Muhammad Mansha and Mian Nawaz Sharif have been advocating this stance because of their vested interests. It’s not at all appropriate to even mention trade with India. If America is pushing Pakistan to fix ties with India then they need to realise that it was them who ruined the relationship, not us.

The relationship can get better if India starts talking about Kashmir. Has India ever extended the hand of friendship? Did they ever show interest in trade with Pakistan? India does not even play cricket with Pakistan, forget about other things. Moreover, Pakistani products are banned in India. If a product made in Pakistan is being sold in India, they are thrown on the roads and burnt by the authorities. They warned and threatened the people of burning their shops if they keep and sell things that were made in Pakistan. There was a bakery situated in Bombay known as Karachi Bakery. The extremists made sure to remove that board and made the bakery owners forcefully change its name. On the contrary, we have had Bombay Sweets in Karachi, and Bombay Cloth House in Lahore for decades. We never burned those shops or asked them to change their names. Hence, we should never consider trading with India until they stop spreading hate toward us.

Ameer ul Azeem

JI’s secretary general

It’s not a good idea to open trade with India until the Kashmir issue is resolved and the relationship between both countries gets better. In my opinion, we should freeze every connection with India instead of creating friendly relations with them. As long as the deep-rooted issues are not resolved trade is impossible.

The Kashmir issue should not be taken lightly. Their Indian brutalities in the Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) have been increasing with every passing day. The Kashmiri people have been reeling under the brutal repression of over a half-million troops deployed in the length and breadth of the territory. How will we show our face to the world and the people of Kashmir if we open trade with India? We will internationally accept their hegemony. I do not agree with any politician or minister who is willing to consider importing India. If we cannot cut our ties with India we should not even try to strengthen them.

If Modi removes embargos on Mehbooba Mufti and Yaseen Malik, set them free, lifts the curfews in Kashmir, and gives them religious, social and political freedom then we can shed light on improving our relationship with India. If we commence trade in this situation, then we will explicitly allow them to continue their oppression in Kashmir. The Kashmiris will become more helpless.

The American lobby in our country has always wanted to build good ties between India and Pakistan. This is an old agenda. If Modi is willing to help Pakistan and send aid amid the floods, it does not give us the impression to start trade with them. It’s not something new.

Japan never recognised China until it apologised to them. When small islands get occupied, the diplomatic ties between countries get sour. America halted the supply of oil to those countries that did not speak against Russia. There are military tensions between Iran and the US without any proper reason. So it happens the world over, we are not unusual.