The KP Challenge

Will the province again serve as a springboard for the PTI’s 2023 election run

Peshawar: Predicting Pakistani politics without considering the various power players’ roles, obviously the establishment on top, could not be an easy task, and this would be true for the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s winning prospects in the 2023 elections, whether it relies solely on its massive public support, which is very much a reality, or it would have to rethink a patch up with the establishment to be on the same page for a smooth sailing to restore Imran Khan to power.

Whether the PTI’s power base in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), from which it developed the blueprint for its political narrative, leading to success in the KP in two consecutive elections in 2013 and 2018, and also leading to power in the country in 2018, would once again prove a launching pad for the PTI’s 2023 election run, is a hotly debated topic among political circles, the intelligentsia, and society in general.

Though it is debatable whether Imran Khan’s charisma and narrative would be sufficient to defeat the PDM alliance in the 2023 elections, the PTI would undoubtedly seek a realignment with all stakeholders to realise its dream, subject to the condition that Imran Khan is given another chance, given his head-on collision with the military and establishment following his ouster from power due to an in-house change, which Imran Khan had been attributing to an international conspiracy.

Dr. Hussain Shaheed Shorwardi, a political analyst and former chairman of the International Relations Department at the University of Peshawar, predicts a bright future for the PTI in KP in 2023, which, according to Dr. Hussain, will score a record hat trick in the upcoming elections, whenever they are held.

Speaking to Bol News, Dr. Hussain said, “I have a point of view. In KP history, no political party has ever won a clear majority like the PTI. In the past, the JUIF, PPP, PML-N, and ANP ruled the province, but they always worked together to form coalition governments. Even during Maulana Mufti Mehmood’s tenure, the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam formed a coalition government, so these political opponents lack election slogans to counter the PTI’s narrative.”

In response to a question, he stated, “The PTI did particularly well with its narratives, especially in KP, where their focus on providing justice to all gradually morphed into bringing about change (Tabdeeli), followed by branding the majority of the top political parties as corrupt. However, after Imran Khan’s ouster as Prime Minister, the regime change, and portraying Imran Khan and the PTI as victims of a conspiracy by international and local players, including the establishment, the real rhetoric that will benefit the PTI in the next elections has emerge.”

“The PTI is cashing in on the victim narrative, and that’s why Imran Khan’s popularity graph has gone up many times, which can lead the PTI to a sweeping victory in the KP for the third time,” he said, adding, “Another aspect is the anti-American slogan, which has always been used by the religious parties like JUIF and JI, but the PTI has also taken it over to win over the conservative religious voter besides their main narrative of bringing a real change for the youth.”

Analyzing the ground reality of provincial politics, the Awami National Party (ANP) lacks a narrative to win over voters, and it will not be a challenge to the PTI in the 2023 elections if the polls are not rigged, as demonstrated in the recent by-election in Charsadda, where Imran Khan defeated Aimal Wali Khan, the party’s future supremo.

The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), which has no counterpart in the KP to challenge the PTI, has been reduced to a miniature in reality due to power struggles among ranks and a leadership crisis, which has largely been blamed on the central party command, which has sidelined true PPP stalwarts and inducted wealthy investors to keep pumping money into the party’s top tier in the name of party funds.

The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), which may not pose a threat to the PTI in the 2023 elections due to its limited presence in the Hazara region, has also been neutralised by intra-party disagreements and increasing PTI influence in Hazara. Second, the majority of former leaguers have already joined the PTI camp, including the Ayub Khan Family and the Rajas of Haripur.

Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao’s Qaumi Watan Party (QWP) and JI would require a lot of oxygen to stand in the way of PTI and would be unable to perform any miracles to force PTI out of KP.

One of the PML-N’s central vice presidents, Amir Muqam, who also serves as an advisor to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, is trying to keep PML-N hopes alive by doling out federal development funds to motivate voters, but his sphere of operation is limited to his own district of Shangla, which will be insignificant to the PTI.

The only major opponent the PTI will face in the 2023 elections in KP will be JUI-F, which was a runner-up in many seats won by the PTI and other parties in 2018, and this time it is likely to give them a tough time but not enough to allow it to form a government on its own.

The JUIF chief Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman, who leads the PDM, has played very tactfully and successfully installed his close relative Haji Ghulam Ali as governor of the province, his son Asad Mehmood as federal minister, and Ghulam Ali’s son as mayor of KP’s capital Peshawar.

It is likely that there will be a neck-and-neck fight in some areas as these positions would surely matter to woe voters, but on the other hand, JUIF chief has also gone into an alliance in PDM with ANP, PPP, PML-N, and others, so if they go under the PDM banner for 2023 elections, it would trouble PTI, but if they opt to contest elections on a party basis, the individual candidate would not be able to defeat PTI except on some traditional seats.

The JUIF would obviously try to get the lion’s share, which the others are unlikely to agree to, as they did during the by-elections. When the votes were divided among them all, there would be a JUIF against each of them, including the ANP, PPP, PML-N, and PTI, putting the PTI in command.

The JUIF has an internal schism as well, with some key leaders leaving due to disagreements with Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman and reportedly supporting the PTI during the Azadi March a few months ago.

Another significant issue is that KP is experiencing the worst law and order situation, particularly since the change in government in Kabul, and this threat is haunting the residents. As KP and the federal government spar over fund releases, an economic crisis looms. The PDM parties appear to have no slogan or election narrative to offer KP residents other than anti-Imran rhetoric and the Toshakhana scam, which has put them on shaky ground.

Moreover, almost all political parties’ top leaders have remained silent on the PTI’s narrative that they are “all corrupt,” which will undoubtedly affect them in the 2023 elections. The rival parties have accused Imran Khan and the PTI of introducing a culture of intolerance and abuse in politics, but on the ground, the language used generally by PDM leaders Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman, Aimal Wali, and others about the PTI leaders, particularly women, would cost them too much, as the PTI is wooing female voters, who have now surpassed male voters in many parts of the province as more and more young voters register and are eager to vote in the 2023 elections.

The ANP, PPP, PML-N, and even JUIF have relied heavily on traditional slogans idealising their founder fathers’ personalities to garner voter support, but in the current situation, the PTI has an advantage over them because the young voter living in the digital age is concerned about his future rather than eulogising the charisma of the past political supremos, who did play a role in the country’s politics, but their glorification is less important for them as compared to their unsecure and uncertain future, as the scions of these parties have nothing to offer them. Instead, they are looking toward the PTI, which is raising the slogans of justice, an end to dynastic politics, and a new era of development.

Aside from political realities, the PTI leaders, like any other political party, are optimistic about achieving a clean sweep. “KP is our base, the PTI’s launching pad, and it would be a boost to extend overrule over Pakistan whenever the elections are held in 2023,” said KP Finance Minister Taimur Saleem Khan Jhagra.

“PTI has captured the imagination of Pakhtuns on a template, and the blue print of this template has helped us to capture the imagination of all Pakistanis, and we are optimistic that KP will serve as a game changer for the destiny of Pakistanis in the 2023 elections,” Taimur said, adding, “We have to rid Pakistanis of these few families who have been squeezing their blood since the nation’s birth, but not any longer. The year 2023 will bring a new dawn for Pakistan.”