LONDON: Oil prices climbed Monday as tit-for-tat attacks between the United States and Iran on vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz intensified fears of a prolonged disruption to crude shipments from the Middle East.
Brent crude futures rose 52 cents, or 0.54%, to $96.80 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 66 cents, or 0.72%, to $92.14 a barrel.
Last week, Brent surged 7.8% and WTI jumped nearly 10% after the U.S. and Iran resumed attacks that reduced oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passed before the conflict.
On Saturday, U.S. forces struck three Iranian oil tankers, including one off the coast of Kharg Island, near Iran’s main oil export terminal, according to U.S. Central Command. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy said it targeted three oil tankers traveling through unauthorized routes in the strait, as well as three additional U.S. vessels elsewhere.
Maritime intelligence firm Marisks described the attacks as a “major escalation in the maritime conflict.”
“Commercial tankers are now being deliberately used as instruments of reciprocal economic pressure, substantially weakening the previous distinction between military confrontation and commercial shipping,” the firm said.
Data from analytics company Kpler showed an average of 10 commodity ships transited the Strait of Hormuz daily over the past 10 days, the lowest level since May.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary, Mohsen Rezaei, said Sunday that a restricted zone will be announced outside the strait in the coming days, state media reported.
Separately, OPEC+ kept its oil output policy unchanged for October at a meeting Sunday, the producer group said, as it needs to agree on new quotas before deciding its next steps.
Analysts at ANZ said a prolonged standoff marked by calibrated military action by both sides appeared the most likely scenario, likely delaying a full recovery in Middle East supply.
“We then expect exports to remain constrained through the rest of 2026, before a gradual reopening late in Q4 2026,” they wrote, adding that a return to pre-war throughput was not expected until late in the first quarter or early in the second quarter of 2027.
